Welcome back to another edition of My Take 5, your weekly round-up of top international news. For this edition we again focus on the war in Ukraine , China’s stand on that conflict as revealed by its foreign minister Wang Yi , Beijing’s help to Pakistan during India’s Operation Sindoor, Chinese agents’ shocking plan to attack Taiwan’s Vice-President in Prague last year, and Russia’s recognition of the Taliban government in Afghanistan.
From this week I will also provide a Bonus section highlighting interesting things from around the world. So let’s get to it.
Ukraine war: Last week saw another massive Russian attack on Kyiv. 539 drones and 11 ballistic missiles were used in the attack – the largest barrage since the full-scale war began in 2022 – which caused widespread damage to civilian infrastructure. The morning after saw Kyiv enveloped by thick black smoke and reporting several injuries and at least two deaths. The attack also shows that Russia’s missile and drone production has stepped up and Moscow is moving closer to a full war economy. This certainly complicates things for Ukraine, especially given the uncertainties around US military aid. Earlier last week, reports emerged that Washington had halted military shipments to Ukraine ostensibly to review its own stockpile. This was strange because the order also halted weapons that had already been shipped to Poland for deliveries to Ukraine. These are weapons that were already approved and paid for by US Congress. The halt, particularly of Patriot air defence missiles, makes Ukraine really vulnerable to Russian aerial barrages.
Hopefully this will be reversed and Trump now appears to be suggesting that Washington will send additional military shipments to Kyiv amidst Moscow’s increasing intensity of attacks. Last week, Trump also said he was very disappointed with Putin after the two leaders had a phone conversation. Trump said that he thought Putin wasn’t looking to stop the fighting. This certainly marks a change in tone from Trump’s previous assessment of Putin. But it’s still too early to say whether this will lead to a deeper realisation in the Trump administration that Moscow actually has no intention of stopping the war. Plus, there is the China factor, and the US has to keep a sharp eye on Beijing’s moves in East Asia. More on that in the next segment.
China’s Ukraine gameplan: The South China Morning Post reported last week that Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi had told EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas that Beijing can’t afford for Russia to lose in Ukraine because that would allow the US to focus more on China and East Asia. This is in stark contrast to China’s official ‘neutral’ stance on the war and raises several questions. If China indirectly benefits from the war, then did it know about Russia’s plans to invade Ukraine in 2022? Did Beijing approve Moscow’s aggression? Recall that Putin had visited Beijing just days before the invasion and had inked a ‘no-limits’ Russia-China pact with Xi Jinping . Was that all in preparation for the invasion?
Plus, it cannot be denied that China has massively aided Russia’s military in the last three years of the war by supplying Moscow with critical dual-use equipment and components for the Russian military-industrial complex. Without this the Russian military would have really struggled.
But then the question is why did Wang choose to openly confirm China’s strategy now. This makes one think that the statement could also be a bait for the US. If Washington falls for it and decides to drawdown from Ukraine in order to focus on China, then it’s advantage Russia. But if the US remains committed to Ukraine, then China will project gains in East Asia. It is precisely this sort of dilemma that Beijing wants to create for the Trump administration. The obvious solution to this is to view Russia and China as a combined threat. The Dragon-Bear compact is real and can’t be separated. It is only through viewing Moscow’s and Beijing’s actions as part of a combined challenge that Washington can mount an effective response. This is Cold War redux, and the US must step up or risk losing its global strategic heft.
How much did China help Pakistan?: India’s deputy army chief Lieutenant-General Rahul R Singh said last week that China was providing live inputs to Pakistan during Operation Sindoor and used the conflict as a live lab to test its weapons. This is a huge admission. Indeed, China was fully supporting Pakistan during Op Sindoor and most of the weapons platforms used by the Pakistani side were of Chinese origin. Therefore, there should be no illusions that China will always stand with Pakistan in case of the latter’s conflict with India.
This information should be a vital input to guide India’s China policy. Beijing doesn’t see New Delhi as an equal and will always use Islamabad to strategically undermine India. China does not want to see India rise. It will only accept India as a supplicant. I will personally not be surprised if there is another Galwan-like incursion by the Chinese PLA within the next year. Given the current ultra-nationalistic turn in the Chinese leadership, India-China relations will be marked by several points of conflict in the foreseeable future. The issue of the next Dalai Lama is a big one and will certainly see two rival Dalai Lamas – one in India and one in China – once the current Dalai Lama passes away.
Therefore, India must do all it can to prepare for the increasing strategic-security challenge from China.
Chinese planned attack on Taiwanese VP: Czech officials confirmed last week that Chinese agents had planned an attack on Taiwanese Vice-President Hsiao Bi-khim during her visit to Prague in March last year. Although Hsiao was not put in any immediate danger, the Chinese plan was to tail her entourage and deliberately collide with her car to create a provocation. Thankfully, the plan was averted. But it goes to show how much of a nefarious force China has become in many parts of the world. It also raises questions about China’s motivations. What was it trying to do in Prague? Had the unprecedented provocation happened, it would have certainly ratcheted up tensions between China and Taiwan. Was Beijing trying to create the pretext for a military assault on Taiwan?
China can no longer be trusted. It has become an aggressive force that will use all the weapons in its toolbox – both economic and security – to achieve its strategic goals in a ruthless fashion. It is no longer even pretending to play by the rules. This is a serious global concern.
Russia recognises Taliban govt: Russia became the first country to recognise the Taliban govt in Afghanistan. The move has multiple motivations. Moscow now sees the Taliban as an ally in the fight against terrorism, even though it had labelled the Taliban as terrorists before. The change perhaps reflects Russia’s growing concern about the ISIS-Khorasan group that operates from the Afghanistan region and claimed responsibility for the attack on a concert hall in Moscow last year in which gunmen killed 149 people. The Taliban is seen as an antidote to ISIS-K. But of course there is a larger strategic play.
Many countries have been openly or covertly dealing with the Taliban regime since it came back to power in 2021. But official recognition had been withheld to incentivise the Taliban to reform, especially in their approach to Afghan women. But Russia seems to have broken that strategy, virtually giving the thumbs up to Taliban’s obscurantist views on gender relations.
Second, the Taliban is not a monolith and different countries were dealing with different factions. Russia’s decision is possibly aimed at bolstering the hardcore faction currently dominating the group, in exchange for brownie points. This in turn is aimed at factions that the West, including the US, may have been courting. Third, Russia has taken a strategic beating in Syria, Lebanon, and to some extent Iran, over the last seven months. Moscow is desperately trying to recoup by making inroads in Afghanistan that could provide it with leverage in Central Asia and South Asia. All countries must watch these developments closely.
Bonus: Finally, I have decided to provide a bonus segment for my readers where I point out interesting, non-newsy things from around the world. And this week I would like to flag the incredible song – and dance – festival in Estonia called Laulupidu, the 28th edition of which was held this past weekend. Tens of thousands of Estonians and multiple international choirs flocked to the Estonian capital of Tallinn for the festival, which has a deep connection to Estonia’s history and struggle for independence. Singing was a critical part of the Baltic nation’s independence movement going back to the days of the Russian Tsarist occupation and then the Soviet occupation. It is through song that Estonians expressed their yearning for freedom and unity, asserting Estonian culture. This culminated in a sort of singing revolution where banned patriotic Estonian songs would be sung as an act of defiance against the occupiers. Today, at Laulupidu – whose theme this year is ‘Iseoma’ or kinship – that spirit lives on. Here’s a look at photos from the festival:
From this week I will also provide a Bonus section highlighting interesting things from around the world. So let’s get to it.
Ukraine war: Last week saw another massive Russian attack on Kyiv. 539 drones and 11 ballistic missiles were used in the attack – the largest barrage since the full-scale war began in 2022 – which caused widespread damage to civilian infrastructure. The morning after saw Kyiv enveloped by thick black smoke and reporting several injuries and at least two deaths. The attack also shows that Russia’s missile and drone production has stepped up and Moscow is moving closer to a full war economy. This certainly complicates things for Ukraine, especially given the uncertainties around US military aid. Earlier last week, reports emerged that Washington had halted military shipments to Ukraine ostensibly to review its own stockpile. This was strange because the order also halted weapons that had already been shipped to Poland for deliveries to Ukraine. These are weapons that were already approved and paid for by US Congress. The halt, particularly of Patriot air defence missiles, makes Ukraine really vulnerable to Russian aerial barrages.
Hopefully this will be reversed and Trump now appears to be suggesting that Washington will send additional military shipments to Kyiv amidst Moscow’s increasing intensity of attacks. Last week, Trump also said he was very disappointed with Putin after the two leaders had a phone conversation. Trump said that he thought Putin wasn’t looking to stop the fighting. This certainly marks a change in tone from Trump’s previous assessment of Putin. But it’s still too early to say whether this will lead to a deeper realisation in the Trump administration that Moscow actually has no intention of stopping the war. Plus, there is the China factor, and the US has to keep a sharp eye on Beijing’s moves in East Asia. More on that in the next segment.
China’s Ukraine gameplan: The South China Morning Post reported last week that Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi had told EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas that Beijing can’t afford for Russia to lose in Ukraine because that would allow the US to focus more on China and East Asia. This is in stark contrast to China’s official ‘neutral’ stance on the war and raises several questions. If China indirectly benefits from the war, then did it know about Russia’s plans to invade Ukraine in 2022? Did Beijing approve Moscow’s aggression? Recall that Putin had visited Beijing just days before the invasion and had inked a ‘no-limits’ Russia-China pact with Xi Jinping . Was that all in preparation for the invasion?
Plus, it cannot be denied that China has massively aided Russia’s military in the last three years of the war by supplying Moscow with critical dual-use equipment and components for the Russian military-industrial complex. Without this the Russian military would have really struggled.
But then the question is why did Wang choose to openly confirm China’s strategy now. This makes one think that the statement could also be a bait for the US. If Washington falls for it and decides to drawdown from Ukraine in order to focus on China, then it’s advantage Russia. But if the US remains committed to Ukraine, then China will project gains in East Asia. It is precisely this sort of dilemma that Beijing wants to create for the Trump administration. The obvious solution to this is to view Russia and China as a combined threat. The Dragon-Bear compact is real and can’t be separated. It is only through viewing Moscow’s and Beijing’s actions as part of a combined challenge that Washington can mount an effective response. This is Cold War redux, and the US must step up or risk losing its global strategic heft.
How much did China help Pakistan?: India’s deputy army chief Lieutenant-General Rahul R Singh said last week that China was providing live inputs to Pakistan during Operation Sindoor and used the conflict as a live lab to test its weapons. This is a huge admission. Indeed, China was fully supporting Pakistan during Op Sindoor and most of the weapons platforms used by the Pakistani side were of Chinese origin. Therefore, there should be no illusions that China will always stand with Pakistan in case of the latter’s conflict with India.
This information should be a vital input to guide India’s China policy. Beijing doesn’t see New Delhi as an equal and will always use Islamabad to strategically undermine India. China does not want to see India rise. It will only accept India as a supplicant. I will personally not be surprised if there is another Galwan-like incursion by the Chinese PLA within the next year. Given the current ultra-nationalistic turn in the Chinese leadership, India-China relations will be marked by several points of conflict in the foreseeable future. The issue of the next Dalai Lama is a big one and will certainly see two rival Dalai Lamas – one in India and one in China – once the current Dalai Lama passes away.
Therefore, India must do all it can to prepare for the increasing strategic-security challenge from China.
Chinese planned attack on Taiwanese VP: Czech officials confirmed last week that Chinese agents had planned an attack on Taiwanese Vice-President Hsiao Bi-khim during her visit to Prague in March last year. Although Hsiao was not put in any immediate danger, the Chinese plan was to tail her entourage and deliberately collide with her car to create a provocation. Thankfully, the plan was averted. But it goes to show how much of a nefarious force China has become in many parts of the world. It also raises questions about China’s motivations. What was it trying to do in Prague? Had the unprecedented provocation happened, it would have certainly ratcheted up tensions between China and Taiwan. Was Beijing trying to create the pretext for a military assault on Taiwan?
China can no longer be trusted. It has become an aggressive force that will use all the weapons in its toolbox – both economic and security – to achieve its strategic goals in a ruthless fashion. It is no longer even pretending to play by the rules. This is a serious global concern.
Russia recognises Taliban govt: Russia became the first country to recognise the Taliban govt in Afghanistan. The move has multiple motivations. Moscow now sees the Taliban as an ally in the fight against terrorism, even though it had labelled the Taliban as terrorists before. The change perhaps reflects Russia’s growing concern about the ISIS-Khorasan group that operates from the Afghanistan region and claimed responsibility for the attack on a concert hall in Moscow last year in which gunmen killed 149 people. The Taliban is seen as an antidote to ISIS-K. But of course there is a larger strategic play.
Many countries have been openly or covertly dealing with the Taliban regime since it came back to power in 2021. But official recognition had been withheld to incentivise the Taliban to reform, especially in their approach to Afghan women. But Russia seems to have broken that strategy, virtually giving the thumbs up to Taliban’s obscurantist views on gender relations.
Second, the Taliban is not a monolith and different countries were dealing with different factions. Russia’s decision is possibly aimed at bolstering the hardcore faction currently dominating the group, in exchange for brownie points. This in turn is aimed at factions that the West, including the US, may have been courting. Third, Russia has taken a strategic beating in Syria, Lebanon, and to some extent Iran, over the last seven months. Moscow is desperately trying to recoup by making inroads in Afghanistan that could provide it with leverage in Central Asia and South Asia. All countries must watch these developments closely.
Bonus: Finally, I have decided to provide a bonus segment for my readers where I point out interesting, non-newsy things from around the world. And this week I would like to flag the incredible song – and dance – festival in Estonia called Laulupidu, the 28th edition of which was held this past weekend. Tens of thousands of Estonians and multiple international choirs flocked to the Estonian capital of Tallinn for the festival, which has a deep connection to Estonia’s history and struggle for independence. Singing was a critical part of the Baltic nation’s independence movement going back to the days of the Russian Tsarist occupation and then the Soviet occupation. It is through song that Estonians expressed their yearning for freedom and unity, asserting Estonian culture. This culminated in a sort of singing revolution where banned patriotic Estonian songs would be sung as an act of defiance against the occupiers. Today, at Laulupidu – whose theme this year is ‘Iseoma’ or kinship – that spirit lives on. Here’s a look at photos from the festival:
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