'Highest in two years': India increases oil imports from Russia, US amidst Iran-Israel war; why it's about strategic positioning, not panic

Iran-Israel conflict impact: India has increased its Russian oil procurement in June, with import volumes surpassing the combined purchases from Saudi Arabia and Iraq, amidst market instability following Israel's significant offensive against Iran.

India, the world's third-largest oil importer and consumer, acquired approximately 5.1 million barrels of crude oil internationally, which refineries process into products such as petrol and diesel.

According to preliminary analysis by global trade analytics firm Kpler quoted in a PTI report, Indian refiners are expected to purchase 2-2.2 million barrels per day of Russian crude oil in June, reaching a two-year peak and exceeding the total quantities acquired from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait.

India’s Shift To Russia, US Oil

• Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, India shifted its oil procurement strategy significantly. The nation, which historically relied on Middle Eastern supplies, began substantial Russian oil imports due to attractive discounts resulting from Western sanctions and European boycotts.
• Russian oil imports to India measured 1.96 million barrels per day (bpd) in May.
• American oil shipments to India increased to 439,000 bpd in June, significantly higher than the 280,000 bpd acquired in the preceding month.
• Kpler's projections indicate Middle Eastern imports for the complete month will approximate 2 million bpd, showing a reduction from the previous month's acquisitions.

• India’s shift has been substantial, with Russian oil imports rising dramatically from under 1 per cent to approximately 40-44 per cent of India's total crude purchases within a brief timeframe.
• Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst, Refining & Modeling at Kpler noted the substantial changes in India's import approach over the past two years.Russian oil varieties (Urals, ESPO, Sokol) operate independently of Hormuz, utilising alternative routes via the Suez Canal, Cape of Good Hope, or Pacific Ocean.
• Indian refineries have developed adaptable refining and payment systems, whilst enhancing operations for diverse crude options. Alternative sources from the US, West Africa, and Latin America, despite higher costs, present increasingly feasible alternatives.

Iran-Israel war : Growing Middle East Tensions & India ImpactCurrently, oil supply chains remain stable despite Middle Eastern tensions. "While supplies remain unaffected so far, vessel activity suggests a decline in crude loadings from the Middle East in the coming days," Ritolia was quoted as saying.

"Shipowners are hesitant to send empty tankers (ballasters) into the Gulf, with the number of such vessels dropping from 69 to just 40, and (Middle East and Gulf) MEG-bound signals from the Gulf of Oman halving."

The current MEG availability is expected to become more constrained shortly, which could necessitate India to reconsider its procurement approach.

The Strait of Hormuz, positioned between Iran's northern border and the southern territories of Oman and the United Arab Emirates, functions as the primary channel for petroleum exports from Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE. The waterway also accommodates substantial liquefied natural gas (LNG) transportation, particularly from Qatar.

With increasing military tensions between Israel and Iran, the latter has indicated possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which facilitates one-fifth of global oil movement and significant LNG exports.

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India's dependence on this maritime route is substantial, with 40 per cent of its oil imports and half of its gas requirements passing through this narrow passage.

Kpler reports that apprehensions regarding potential Strait of Hormuz closure have grown following Israel's offensive actions targeting Iranian military and nuclear facilities. Iranian hardline elements have suggested closure, and state media outlets predict oil prices could reach $400 per barrel.

"Yet, Kpler analysis assigns a very low probability to a full blockade, citing strong disincentives for Iran," Ritolia said.

India Insulated?
India's crude imports from Russia and the United States in June demonstrate this stability-focused combination. If conflict deepens or there is any short-term disruption in Hormuz, Russian barrels will rise in share, offering both physical availability and pricing relief. India could increase its reliance on the United States, Nigeria, Angola, and Brazil, despite higher transportation expenses.

Additionally, India has the option to utilise its strategic reserves, which cover approximately 9-10 days of imports, to address any deficits.

The administration could implement price support measures to control inflation if domestic rates increase, particularly for diesel and LPG.

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During June 1st to 19th, Russian crude imports to India reached approximately 2.1-2.2 million barrels per day (bpd), sustaining Russia's position with over 35 per cent of India's overall crude imports. This trend has remained stable throughout the previous 30 months.

American crude imports to India measured around 439,000 bpd in the identical period, indicating growing trade relationships across the Atlantic and India's strategy to diversify its oil sources.

India's crude oil imports in June 2025 reflect a calculated strategic approach rather than a panic response. Russian petroleum serves as both a practical and economic buffer, complemented by supplies from the United States and Atlantic Basin that provide additional supply alternatives.

Despite the Middle East's continued significance, particularly for crude and LPG supplies, Indian refineries now have enhanced capabilities to address supply disruptions swiftly. The Strait of Hormuz continues to be a critical passage with minimal risk but substantial potential impact, prompting India's refining industry to establish systems ensuring operational continuity, adaptability and durability.

Counter-productivity of blocking Strait of Hormuz
Meanwhile, China's position as Iran's primary oil customer, importing 47 per cent of seaborne crude from the Middle East Gulf, creates significant implications for Iran. Iran's heavy dependence on the Strait of Hormuz for oil exports through Kharg Island, which manages 96 per cent of its exports, makes any self-imposed blockade counterproductive.

Over the past two years, Tehran has actively worked to restore diplomatic relations with major regional players, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE. These nations heavily rely on the Strait for their exports and have expressed opposition to Israel's actions. Disrupting their oil flows could jeopardise Iran's recent diplomatic achievements.

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A blockade would inevitably trigger an international military response. US and allied forces could detect any Iranian naval preparations beforehand, potentially leading to pre-emptive action. According to Kpler, even limited sabotage attempts would only interrupt flows for 24-48 hours, as US forces could neutralise Iran's conventional naval capabilities within this timeframe.

Such actions would result in military consequences and strain diplomatic relations with Oman, compromising Iran's existing communication channels with the US.