Nigel Farage lasers in on economy - 3 thing Reform must pledge to win over Tories

A new month and a new policy, at least for Reform UK, as leader Nigel Farage gave a major speech Monday on making a Reform government "the most pro-business" in British history. But the message on deregulation and making the most of Brexit will be predictably minimised by opponents who will focus on a perceived rowing back on formerly pledged tax cuts.

In a nod to the parlous state of public finances, Reform is walking back a 2024 promise to slash £90bn in tax. But far from evidence of Reform making policy up as it goes along, this suggests a party taking its responsibility seriously to prepare for office. What, after all, is the alternative? Reform remains committed to tax cuts to stimulate the economy but Farage and co recognise the need to prioritise the books and avoid a Liz Truss-style market meltdown.

After all, unlike the Labour front bench, Reform actually has a team which knows a thing or two about running businesses.

Last week, Reform also said it will stop people with anxiety disorders from claiming Personal Independence Payments (Pip), saving £9bn each year from the welfare bill.

As I have argued, long-term Reform could look to Singapore's Central Provident Fund (CPF) as a model for welfare and healthcare reform, a model whereby folks are forced to put money into a national savings plan, topped up by employers and the government.

Looking at the polls meanwhile, Reform remains well ahead. Still, its support seems capped at around 30%. Even with a forecast parliamentary majority, Reform needs to be hovering nearer 40% to feel comfortable of winning, given the threat from tactical voting.

This shouldn't be elusive. Grabbing around half of current Tory support would get Reform to that more comfortable number. Much of what holds back straggling Tory voters - apart from misplaced loyalty to the party of Thatcher - is the fear that Reform can't be trusted with the nation's bank account.

Aside from the fact the profligate Conservatives exploded the national debt - just as they exploded immigration - Reform's pledge to reduce spending and deregulate before jumping headfirst into tax cuts should give remaining tribal Tories some grounds for confidence in Farage's team.

Reform will never win over the Heseltine Tories - although many are migrating to the Lib Dems, Kemi Badenoch will be able to keep some out of habit and misplaced allegiance - there is likely another chunk of Tory supporters who would break off provided they could trust Reform with the Treasury.

Reform must never stop reminding folks how bad the Tories botched Brexit, broke the promise to slash immigration, and - some early days austerity aside - never attempted to fix the country's finances, increase productivity or discernibly increase living standards.

We know there is probably another 8-10% of Tory voters who would jump ship to Reform, taking Farage to a more breathable 40% in the polls. Freeing business, bringing down an unaffordable welfare bill, and reducing taxes when and where possible is the way to bring those straggling Conservative voters around.

Reform may not have a track record in government but at least it doesn't have to defend the abominable records which the Conservatives and now Labour must be judged on.