“The Real Heatwave Is Yet to Come”: WMO Warns of Record-Breaking Temperatures Ahead

While people across North India—including Delhi—are struggling under the current sweltering heatwave, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued a far more alarming warning: the worst is yet to come.

According to the WMO’s latest report, there is an 80% chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will be hotter than 2024, possibly setting new global temperature records.

The Planet Keeps Getting Hotter

This shouldn’t come as a surprise, the WMO says. The past 11 consecutive years have already been the hottest on record since global temperature measurements began in 1880.

The new Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (2025–2029) paints a worrying picture. It forecasts a 70% likelihood that the five-year average temperature from 2025 to 2029 will breach the critical 1.5°C threshold set by the Paris Agreement—a sharp rise from last year’s estimate of 47% for the 2024–2028 period, and far higher than the 32% probability projected in 2023 for 2023–2027.

What Crossing the 1.5°C Mark Means

Crossing 1.5°C of warming doesn't just mean hotter days. It signals the increased likelihood of devastating consequences:

• Intense and frequent heatwaves

• Prolonged droughts

• Accelerated ice melt and sea-level rise

• Widespread disruptions to agriculture and water resources

The report warns that between 2025 and 2029, the global average surface temperature will likely remain between 1.2°C and 1.9°C above pre-industrial levels (1850–1900 baseline)—a range significantly above the average of the last 60 years.

Is the Paris Agreement in Danger?

Despite the ominous projections, the WMO clarifies that temporary breaches of the 1.5°C target do not amount to a failure of the Paris Agreement. That threshold refers to long-term average warming, typically measured over a 20-year period.

Still, the central estimate for the 2015–2034 period now stands at 1.44°C, with a 90% confidence range between 1.22°C and 1.54°C—uncomfortably close to the limit.

Urgency to Act, Monitor, and Adapt

The WMO stresses the critical need for continued climate monitoring and urgent policy changes to mitigate and adapt to these rising temperatures. As the climate crisis deepens, timely data will be crucial for decision-makers around the world to prepare for the rapidly shifting climate.

With heatwaves already pushing cities like Delhi to the brink, the WMO’s forecast serves as a chilling reminder: this summer might feel extreme, but the future could be far worse.