Russia and Belarus start wargames on EU doorstep in feared invasion rehearsal

A major military presence is being deployed on NATO’s eastern flank as Russia and Belarus launch a major joint military operation.

As Europe reels from the unprecedented droneintrusion last week, the “Zapad” or “West” 2025 drills are set to take place in Russia and Belarus from Friday until Tuesday, September 16.

The exercises are set to cover Russian land territory as well as areas of the Baltic and Barents sea, Moscow’s Defence Ministry has said. Part of the drills will see troops “planning the use of” nuclear weapons and the new nuclear-capable Oreshnik ballistic missiles that Russia has said it will station in Belarus.

It comes against a backdrop of increased tensions between Russian and the West, with Donald Trump saying his patience with Vladimir Putin was “wearing out fast” and hinting at tough sanctions over the Ukraine war.

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Meanwhile in Europe leaders fear that a recent incursion of Russian drones into Polish airspace could trigger a wider conflict along the region’s eastern border. Leaders have described the move as a deliberate provocation while Russian military sources have said it wasn’t targeting Poland while Belarus suggested drones veered off course.

The incident marked the first time that NATO allies were to confront a potential threat in their airspace since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The intrusion could have been a test of NATO’s readiness for a potential air incursion ahead of the planned drills, analysts said.

Security has been ramped up in Poland, Lithuania and Latvia with Poland ordering its border with Belarus to be completely closed during the exercises.

Some in Europe fear the military exercises could be a rehearsal for an invasion of Europe, following the massive buildup of troops in the 2021 "exercise" that led to the invasion of Ukraine.

Barbed wire and barricades were pulled across roads on the Polish border as Prime Minister Donald Tusk sent 40,000 troops to the region as he warned of 'critical days' ahead. Poland was closer to “open conflict” than at any time since World War II, he warned, following the drone incursion.

The Zapad-2021 drills became an excuse for the Russian government to deploy 200,000 troops to the Ukrainian border, before launching an invasion of the neighbouring country. This time the Russian units are though to be simulating an occupation of the Suwalki corridor, considered a vulnerability for NATO, Tusk said.

A Kremlin spokesman played down concerns this year. Dmitry Peskov said Thursday the drills are “planned exercises” and “not aimed against anyone”.

“The objectives of the drills are to improve the skills of commanders and staffs, the level of co-operation and field training of regional and coalition groupings of troops,” the Russian defence ministry posted on Telegram.

But Polish president Tusk has blasted the “very aggressive” Zapad manoeuvres and announced that Poland would close its border.

“This decision to close the border … is a response to very specific aggressive military exercises against Poland that are starting in Belarus," Interior Minister Marcin Kierwinski said.

“We are doing this for the safety of our citizens. Russia has been behaving aggressively towards Poland in recent days and for many years … towards the entire civilised world.”

However this year’s exercise is expected to be smaller than the 2021 manoeuvres that preceded the invasion of Ukraine. Minsk has said that just 13,000 troops would be involved, later announcing that number could be reduced by half.

The exercises would involve Russia's new experimental nuclear-capable missile, dubbed Oreshnik, as well as nuclear strike training, Belarussian officials confirmed.

Poland and its allies planned to hold their own counter-drills through September in a move that analysts have said is reminiscent of the Cold War.