Is this AI tool accurate enough to predict your death? Here's what scientists say

Researchers have developed an innovative AI-enabled mortality calculator that can estimate an individual's proximity to death. Published in Lancet Digital Health, this study highlights how AI-powered electrocardiograms (ECGs) can predict future health issues and mortality risk. However, this technology is not yet a part of standard medical practice.

Introducing AIRE: The AI-ECG Risk Estimator
The AI-ECG Risk Estimator, or AIRE, aims to address the shortcomings of current prediction models that do not provide clear guidance for individual patients. These existing models are often complicated, lack clear explanations, and fail to align well with biological realities. The researchers behind AIRE have crafted a new tool designed to overcome these limitations.

In addition to mortality prediction, AIRE is capable of forecasting future heart failure, which occurs when the heart can no longer pump efficiently. Remarkably, the system can predict this condition accurately in nearly eight out of ten cases. "We sought to address these limitations of previous AI-ECG approaches by developing the AI-ECG risk estimator (AIRE) platform," the researchers wrote.

The program is set to undergo trials at two hospitals under the UK's National Health Service starting in mid-2025. Experts anticipate that it could become a standard tool across the health service within five years, enabling healthcare providers to offer more personalized care.

How does it work?
AIRE utilizes a comprehensive dataset of 1.16 million ECG test results from 189,539 patients to inform its predictions. This extensive training has allowed it to detect future serious heart rhythm issues in three-quarters (76%) of cases and identify atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease—where arteries narrow and restrict blood flow—in 70% of cases.

The system will not only provide clinicians with diagnoses but also outline a range of health risks, allowing for early intervention and disease prevention. For example, if the AIRE system indicates a patient is at high risk for a specific heart rhythm problem, healthcare providers can implement more aggressive preventive measures.

Dr. Arunashis Sau, an academic clinical lecturer at Imperial College London’s National Heart and Lung Institute and cardiology specialist registrar at Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, stated, "We cardiologists use our experience and standard guidelines when we look at ECGs, sorting them into ‘normal’ and ‘abnormal’ patterns to help us diagnose disease. However, the AI model detects much more subtle detail, so it can ‘spot’ problems in ECGs that would appear normal to us, and potentially long before the disease develops fully."

Accuracy and Limitations of AI Mortality Calculators
The AI mortality calculator has shown a significant accuracy rate, correctly identifying the risk of death within ten years following an ECG test in 78% of cases. The system can predict health risks such as heart rhythm problems, heart attacks, and heart failure, as well as potential non-heart-related causes of death. "The system can predict future health risks such as heart rhythm problems, heart attacks, and heart failure, as well as when someone would die from a non-heart-related cause. The researchers found it could predict these risks with a high level of accuracy," the researchers noted.

However, while AI death calculators can provide valuable insights, they also have notable limitations. These tools typically estimate life expectancy based on inputs such as age, lifestyle, health conditions, and demographics. Yet, their accuracy can be compromised by unpredictable factors, including accidents, sudden illnesses, and changes in medical care that the AI cannot foresee.

Moreover, the effectiveness of these calculators relies heavily on the quality and comprehensiveness of the training data. They often fail to consider individual variations, emotional factors, and future advancements in medicine that could significantly influence longevity. Therefore, AI death calculators should be viewed as general guides rather than absolute predictions.

AI mortality calculators like AIRE represent a significant advancement in healthcare technology, with the potential to improve patient outcomes by identifying health risks earlier. However, they should be used with caution, as they cannot provide precise predictions about individual life expectancy. While these tools can highlight health trends and encourage healthier lifestyles, the complexity of human health extends beyond what any algorithm can predict. The journey towards integrating AI into healthcare is ongoing, and as technology evolves, it will be essential to consider the various factors that impact longevity and well-being.