The 2024 US presidential election is on a razor’s edge with national polls going up and down by a few points for or against Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. The vibe keeps changing, the balance keeps shifting, to say nothing of the predictions.
In this uncertain scenario, Indian Americans—the fastest growing immigrant group at 4.4 million, with 2.1 million eligible voters— can make a difference, especially in swing states, say political strategists. They have been faithful to the Democratic Party over decades with a large majority (up to 65%) voting for Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020. The Harris campaign hopes for a repeat performance even if it hasn’t done much outreach to the community.
Perhaps it’s the wild card nature of her nomination, or the constraints of an abridged campaign, or the overwhelming need to win more crucial constituencies. Whatever may be the reason behind Harris’ not headlining Indian American fundraisers, community leaders are working the scene to have a Democrat in the White House.
That doesn’t mean all is well. There are many who feel she doesn’t have a strong connect to the community. But no one will say so on record.
Trump has made fun of Harris’ Indian name, deliberately mangling it to imply she’s not a true-blue American. She has maintained a dignified distance from the insinuations and insults, but the non-embrace has a cost. The emotional attachment that many felt when she was catapulted as the nominee is withering for some.
In general , Indian Americans have found the Democratic Party more welcoming with its “large tent” approach of accommodating different religions and social and cultural mores. The Republican Party, meanwhile, is seen as somewhat hostile to immigrants while being beholden to Evangelical Christians of late. The decimation of reproductive rights by the Trump-appointed justices jolted many, especially Indian American women. Is a single issue enough to get Harris over the finishing line?
The Indian American Impact (IAI), a political organisation aimed at increasing representation, found Harris with a “commanding lead” of 68% over Trump in five battleground states in its latest poll of 600 voters. Around 20% supported Trump. According to Chintan Patel, IAI’s executive director, since the margins are very thin, Indian Americans in swing states can make a difference. His survey found that 80% of Harris voters were extremely motivated to go and vote compared with 66% of Trump voters.
Last month, a group of Indian Americans started a campaign for Harris to mobilise the community in the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia , Wisconsin and Michigan. Ajay Bhutoria, an Indian American Democrat, said a strong “ground game” was in operation in Pennsylvania. The path to 270 electoral votes for victory goes through Pennsylvania in most scenarios.
Volunteers are making phone calls, knocking on doors and leaving messages in various Indian languages to make the recalcitrant get into the act. As a top fundraiser, Bhutoria has known Harris from her days as the attorney general of California. He is confident that the community will turn out for her because ultimately the question facing them is, “What kind of role model do you want for your children in the White House?” The answer is obvious in his opinion, meaning Harris.
NOT A BLOCK
That said, the Indian American community is not a monolith. It may not yet show 50 shades of grey but it heaves and sighs on some of the issues as the rest of the Americans. It should be no surprise that Indian Americans are discussing illegal immigration and high inflation at temple gatherings and pre-Diwali card parties besides the usual segues into match making and one-upmanship over their latest acquisitions.
The initial euphoria around imagining a president of Indian descent in the White House has been absorbed and digested. Harris would be the first woman and also the first of Indian and Black American descent to be president if she were to win. All admirable and good reasons to push America to finally score a goal on that front. But it’s also time for many to take a hard look at Harris as a “candidate” and assess her record. On that score, the fact that she is NOT Trump is proving to be a necessary but not a sufficient condition. At least, for some.
They noticed how Harris stopped mentioning her Indian roots after Trump said, “I didn’t know she was Black”, triggering a controversy about identity and race that her campaign decided was best avoided. Stay mainly Black for the campaign since that vote is absolutely crucial – it put Biden in the White House. Harris has mentioned her mother, Shyamala Gopalan, on every important occasion, including at the Democratic Party Convention when she won the nomination, but lately she is not highlighting her Indian-ness now that polls show Trump is pulling away a percentage of Black and Latino male votes.
The Great Indian Wall around Democrats is showing cracks that first developed in 2016 with a small shift in favour of Trump. They are widening as dinner table talk turns to the shambolic management of the southern border under the Biden-Harris administration. Based on official figures, 11-16 million illegal immigrants are living in the US—Republicans use the figure of 20 million and claim nearly half of them entered in the last three years. Exaggeration is unnecessary but the real figures are damaging enough.
The problem of illegal immigrants is discussed endlessly by Indian Americans most of whom came here legally and got ahead by the rules of the game. Although it surprises them somewhat to learn that today illegals from India constitute the third largest group of unauthorised migrants in the US, they are not necessarily sympathetic to their plight. In 2021, there were around 725,000 undocumented immigrants from India, according to a Pew Research Center report. The older generation is especially cut up about illegal immigration even if younger Indian Americans are more woke and sympathetic on the subject.
Then there is the larger question about relations with India, Democratic Party’s attitude toward Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the huge controversy around US-based Khalistanis, the alleged assassination plot by Indian agents to kill one that was foiled by the US intelligence and finally the issue of Kashmir and human rights. Trump is seen as more reasonable and friendly while Harris has taken a more critical stand on human rights issues.
Last month when Modi came to the US to attend the Quad summit and bid Biden goodbye, Harris didn’t find the time to meet him. Trump had announced at a rally he was going to meet Modi in New York. But for Modi to meet one candidate and not the other in a highly charged political climate, would have been nothing short of a political disaster.
All this hasn’t gone unnoticed by Indian American community leaders who feel the Democrats have become beholden to certain interest groups. In order to consolidate the Sikh American vote, the White House chose to invite some Sikh activists, including a few who support Khalistan, days before Modi’s arrival. In a provocative move designed to send signals all around, including to New Delhi, US officials promised to protect them from transnational repression—meaning from Indian intelligence lurking around to get them. A majority of the Sikh American vote was presumably secured for Harris.
By contrast, the mini state of Gujarat in New Jersey is expected to go for Trump for the most part. Many Gujaratis want a Modi-friendly dispensation in the White House—Trump has showered high praise on Modi, calling him “great” and a friend of his. But the Trump campaign hasn’t made an extra effort to reach Indian Americans except to deploy Vivek Ramaswamy to take down Harris.
Americans will make a choice on November 5. Until then polls and pollsters, pundits and punditry will fill the time guessing the outcome within the margin of error.
The writer is a columnist based in Washington, DC
In this uncertain scenario, Indian Americans—the fastest growing immigrant group at 4.4 million, with 2.1 million eligible voters— can make a difference, especially in swing states, say political strategists. They have been faithful to the Democratic Party over decades with a large majority (up to 65%) voting for Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020. The Harris campaign hopes for a repeat performance even if it hasn’t done much outreach to the community.
Perhaps it’s the wild card nature of her nomination, or the constraints of an abridged campaign, or the overwhelming need to win more crucial constituencies. Whatever may be the reason behind Harris’ not headlining Indian American fundraisers, community leaders are working the scene to have a Democrat in the White House.
That doesn’t mean all is well. There are many who feel she doesn’t have a strong connect to the community. But no one will say so on record.
Trump has made fun of Harris’ Indian name, deliberately mangling it to imply she’s not a true-blue American. She has maintained a dignified distance from the insinuations and insults, but the non-embrace has a cost. The emotional attachment that many felt when she was catapulted as the nominee is withering for some.
In general , Indian Americans have found the Democratic Party more welcoming with its “large tent” approach of accommodating different religions and social and cultural mores. The Republican Party, meanwhile, is seen as somewhat hostile to immigrants while being beholden to Evangelical Christians of late. The decimation of reproductive rights by the Trump-appointed justices jolted many, especially Indian American women. Is a single issue enough to get Harris over the finishing line?
The Indian American Impact (IAI), a political organisation aimed at increasing representation, found Harris with a “commanding lead” of 68% over Trump in five battleground states in its latest poll of 600 voters. Around 20% supported Trump. According to Chintan Patel, IAI’s executive director, since the margins are very thin, Indian Americans in swing states can make a difference. His survey found that 80% of Harris voters were extremely motivated to go and vote compared with 66% of Trump voters.
Last month, a group of Indian Americans started a campaign for Harris to mobilise the community in the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia , Wisconsin and Michigan. Ajay Bhutoria, an Indian American Democrat, said a strong “ground game” was in operation in Pennsylvania. The path to 270 electoral votes for victory goes through Pennsylvania in most scenarios.
Volunteers are making phone calls, knocking on doors and leaving messages in various Indian languages to make the recalcitrant get into the act. As a top fundraiser, Bhutoria has known Harris from her days as the attorney general of California. He is confident that the community will turn out for her because ultimately the question facing them is, “What kind of role model do you want for your children in the White House?” The answer is obvious in his opinion, meaning Harris.
NOT A BLOCK
That said, the Indian American community is not a monolith. It may not yet show 50 shades of grey but it heaves and sighs on some of the issues as the rest of the Americans. It should be no surprise that Indian Americans are discussing illegal immigration and high inflation at temple gatherings and pre-Diwali card parties besides the usual segues into match making and one-upmanship over their latest acquisitions.
The initial euphoria around imagining a president of Indian descent in the White House has been absorbed and digested. Harris would be the first woman and also the first of Indian and Black American descent to be president if she were to win. All admirable and good reasons to push America to finally score a goal on that front. But it’s also time for many to take a hard look at Harris as a “candidate” and assess her record. On that score, the fact that she is NOT Trump is proving to be a necessary but not a sufficient condition. At least, for some.
They noticed how Harris stopped mentioning her Indian roots after Trump said, “I didn’t know she was Black”, triggering a controversy about identity and race that her campaign decided was best avoided. Stay mainly Black for the campaign since that vote is absolutely crucial – it put Biden in the White House. Harris has mentioned her mother, Shyamala Gopalan, on every important occasion, including at the Democratic Party Convention when she won the nomination, but lately she is not highlighting her Indian-ness now that polls show Trump is pulling away a percentage of Black and Latino male votes.
The Great Indian Wall around Democrats is showing cracks that first developed in 2016 with a small shift in favour of Trump. They are widening as dinner table talk turns to the shambolic management of the southern border under the Biden-Harris administration. Based on official figures, 11-16 million illegal immigrants are living in the US—Republicans use the figure of 20 million and claim nearly half of them entered in the last three years. Exaggeration is unnecessary but the real figures are damaging enough.
The problem of illegal immigrants is discussed endlessly by Indian Americans most of whom came here legally and got ahead by the rules of the game. Although it surprises them somewhat to learn that today illegals from India constitute the third largest group of unauthorised migrants in the US, they are not necessarily sympathetic to their plight. In 2021, there were around 725,000 undocumented immigrants from India, according to a Pew Research Center report. The older generation is especially cut up about illegal immigration even if younger Indian Americans are more woke and sympathetic on the subject.
Then there is the larger question about relations with India, Democratic Party’s attitude toward Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the huge controversy around US-based Khalistanis, the alleged assassination plot by Indian agents to kill one that was foiled by the US intelligence and finally the issue of Kashmir and human rights. Trump is seen as more reasonable and friendly while Harris has taken a more critical stand on human rights issues.
Last month when Modi came to the US to attend the Quad summit and bid Biden goodbye, Harris didn’t find the time to meet him. Trump had announced at a rally he was going to meet Modi in New York. But for Modi to meet one candidate and not the other in a highly charged political climate, would have been nothing short of a political disaster.
All this hasn’t gone unnoticed by Indian American community leaders who feel the Democrats have become beholden to certain interest groups. In order to consolidate the Sikh American vote, the White House chose to invite some Sikh activists, including a few who support Khalistan, days before Modi’s arrival. In a provocative move designed to send signals all around, including to New Delhi, US officials promised to protect them from transnational repression—meaning from Indian intelligence lurking around to get them. A majority of the Sikh American vote was presumably secured for Harris.
By contrast, the mini state of Gujarat in New Jersey is expected to go for Trump for the most part. Many Gujaratis want a Modi-friendly dispensation in the White House—Trump has showered high praise on Modi, calling him “great” and a friend of his. But the Trump campaign hasn’t made an extra effort to reach Indian Americans except to deploy Vivek Ramaswamy to take down Harris.
Americans will make a choice on November 5. Until then polls and pollsters, pundits and punditry will fill the time guessing the outcome within the margin of error.
The writer is a columnist based in Washington, DC
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